The journal's goal
This journal aims to describe and explain estimates from prediction markets as they appear at a given moment. It does not try to predict the future; it makes readable the collective consensus expressed by participants risking real money on future events.
Data sources
The data shown in this journal primarily comes from Polymarket, a public prediction markets platform. On these markets, participants buy and sell positions tied to specific events, which produces probabilities expressed as percentages.
Each article explicitly mentions:
- the observed market
- the date the data was captured
What do the probabilities represent?
The displayed percentages represent a collective estimate based on current positions at a given moment.
A high probability means:
- more participants consider this scenario likely
- and are willing to put real money behind it
These probabilities are neither certainties nor official forecasts. They indicate the state of expectations at that point in time.
How markets are selected
Not every available market becomes an article. Selected markets meet several criteria:
- the question is understandable to a broad audience
- the market is active and shows a readable signal (dominance, uncertainty, or notable movement)
- the observed event is politically, economically, or socially relevant
This selection prioritizes clarity over exhaustiveness.
Interpretation and neutrality
The analysis is limited to:
- explaining how to read probabilities
- describing what these estimates imply in terms of collective perception
No recommendations, opinions, or advice are provided. The journal is descriptive and neutral, and does not try to influence the reader’s views.
Limitations
Prediction markets can be influenced by:
- recent news
- market liquidity
- speculative or emotional behavior
Estimates can change quickly and should not be interpreted as guaranteed outcomes.
Transparency
Sources are always provided, and capture dates are stated. Articles are snapshots and may be expanded or updated if the market changes significantly.